{"content":"Everyone’s staring at short-term price action. But the real map is here. 👇 This chart tracks the average cost basis of new Bitcoin holders (blue) with standard deviation bands that historically capture overheating and cooling phases. Right now: The STH cost basis sits around $107K. The +1σ band at $127K is the next major resistance zone. A decisive breakout above it could open the path to $144K (+2σ), a level where previous cycles often met heavy sell pressure. The market tends to overextend into these upper bands before correcting. If $BTC breaks $127K with conviction, the probability of a push toward $144K becomes very real but that’s also where you start seeing serious distribution from newer hands. In my experience, these levels don’t just tell you where we could go; they tell you when the risk-reward shifts. Accumulation near cost basis zones is where money is made. Chasing overheated bands is where emotions get punished. This isn’t about calling a top, it’s about understanding risk. And right now, the risk curve tells us $127K is the battlefield to watch. #MarketTurbulence ","images":["https://d2kdcqywr8ua22.cloudfront.net/uploadfile/article/blog/2025082025/08/16/34f6a6390367f157d552957995cec623.jpg"],"tags":[],"tradingPairs":["BTC/USDT"],"quotearticleid":0}