{"content":"#MarketRebound # PMI DATA: RATE CUTS Ahead??💥💥 - The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers released yesterday dropped to 48.5 in May, down from 48.7 in April, marking the third consecutive month in contraction territory (below 50). This is not just a blip, and 57% of the sector’s GDP contracted in May, up sharply from 41% in April, showing that manufacturing weakness is spreading. The new orders index, a key forward-looking component, came in at 47.6 (up slightly from 47.2), but that’s still four straight months of contraction. Production also remained weak at 45.4, though it ticked up from 44.0 in April. Employment is still shrinking, with the index at 46.8, barely higher than last monthUP - One of the most concerning data points, in my opinion, is the prices paid index. It is still sky high at 69.4, only marginally lower than April’s 69.8. This means manufacturers are facing persistent inflationary pressures, mostly from tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Imports hit a 16-year low and exports a five-year low, highlighting how trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs are biting into demand and supply chains. Interestingly, while some industries like apparel, plastics, and petroleum reported growth in new orders, the majority, including key sectors like food, electronics, and chemicals, are still shrinking. Panellists in the ISM survey mentioned a 3-to-1 ratio of negative to positive comments, citing reduced output and business climate uncertaintycheck_green - Now, how does this affect the Fed’s next move? Markets are currently pricing in around 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, down from 75 basis points a month ago, showing some scaling back of aggressive easing bets. I believe this persistent contraction, especially with inflation still sticky, puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot here. The market was expecting a PMI closer to 49.5, so this miss increases the odds of a rate cut, possibly as early as September. ","images":["https://d2kdcqywr8ua22.cloudfront.net/uploadfile/article/blog/2025062025/06/03/988ad6f4395a49d692f262b3d478d316.png"],"tags":[],"tradingPairs":[],"quotearticleid":0}